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Musings on Markets
JANUARY 19, 2022
In a post at the start of 2021 , I argued that while stocks entered the year at elevated levels, especially on historic metrics (such as PE ratios), they were priced to deliver reasonable returns, relative to very low risk free rates (with the treasury bond rate at 0.93% at the start of 2021). The year that was.
Musings on Markets
MAY 6, 2022
The good news is that the culprit behind the volatility is easy to identify, and it is inflation, but the bad news is that inflation remains the most unpredictable of all macroeconomic factors to factor into stock prices and value.
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Musings on Markets
SEPTEMBER 27, 2022
In my early 2021 posts on inflation, I argued that while the higher inflation that we were just starting to see could be explained by COVID and supply chain issues, prudence on the part of policy makers required that it be taken as a long term threat and dealt with quickly. in the NY Fed survey.
Musings on Markets
JANUARY 17, 2024
That positive result notwithstanding, the recovery was uneven, with a big chunk of the increase in market capitalization coming from seven companies (Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, NVidia and Tesla) and wide divergences in performance across stocks, in performance. The solid comeback in stocks, though, came with caveats.
Musings on Markets
JANUARY 9, 2021
I spent the first week of 2021 in the same way that I have spent the first week of every year since 1995, collecting data on publicly traded companies and analyzing how they navigated the cross currents of the prior year, both in operating and market value terms. So, why bother?
Musings on Markets
AUGUST 5, 2023
As part of that obsession, since September 2008, I have estimated an equity risk premium for the S&P 500 at the start of each month, and not only used that premium, when valuing companies during that month, but shared my estimate on my webpage and on social media. What is it? What is it?
Musings on Markets
JANUARY 8, 2022
Happy New Year, and I hope that 2022 brings you good tidings! To start the year, I returned to a ritual that I have practiced for thirty years, and that is to take a look at not just market changes over the last year, but also to get measures of the financial standing and practices of companies around the world.
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